Plaid Cymru are in charge of Wales with Reform as the opposition - what happens now?

As the dust settles on a historic night in Welsh politics Robin, Mel and Will break down what happens next.

They look at how Plaid plans to govern. Ask whether Reform will be a good opposition and predict what direction Labour are heading. 

In a world first Robin also finds a talking turtle...

About FWSW

100 years ago if you had picked up the Encyclopaedia Britannica and looked up “Wales” you would have seen four words - ‘For Wales, see England.’ 

This implied that Wales was no different to England. Not worthy of its own description. Second fiddle. Frankly, it implied that Wales was simply less of a country. 

That is why we have launched our podcast: For Wales, See Wales.

It is a weekly look at Welsh politics looking at the issues that matter to people here.

There are so many people who are passionately Welsh, who care about Wales and want to better understand what is happening here. 

The more informed people are on Welsh issues, the more they are able to hold politicians and decision makers to account for the things that affect their lives. 

Just as importantly, we want to have a good laugh talking and learning about the country we love.

Plus we have some great merchandise which you can buy here: https://for-wales-see-wales.teemill.com/

Get in touch at ForWalesSeeWales@gmail.com

For Wales, See Wales is a HayMan Media Production
https://www.haymanmedia.co.uk/

Transcript

Robin Morgan: Hello and welcome to another For Wales See Wales with me Robin Morgan.

Mel: me, Mel Owen.

Will Hayward: and me will hayward. The excitement is still bubbling but I feel like we're on a in a more normal mood than we were in our last episode. Last episode was obviously an emergency result. Now we know a little bit more, a little bit more has happened. Still at sea, still scared of coming home. Robin, how do you feel in these last few days now since we've got into a week since election?

Robin Morgan: It feels like a back to school week. It feels like everyone's kind of seeing everybody in the Senate now, getting their planners and working out which is week A and which is week B. It feels like everyone's got their fresh stationary and they're back in it now. It feels quite exciting. And as we said at the end of the last episode, election done, governing to come, right? So, it feels like let's see what they're made of in terms of this first 100 days. We're in it now, right? We're in it. So, let's see what's going to happen.

Will Hayward: Yeah. Tik Tok Rhunicorn 100 days is upon us. I think it is worth saying because a few people didn't really realize you were actually on a boat. Quite a few people were like, "Oh, what's the joke about Robin being on a boat?" But can you just explain where are you right now? Where are you actually?

Robin Morgan: So, I'm currently on a cruise ship in Kefalonia. When we did the first episode, I was in just outside Athens. And tomorrow, I go to Corfu and then I fly back home. I've been doing some gigs on a boat. The gigs are quite strange but swimming in the sea delightful. Was in saw some lovely things in Kefalonia this morning. It's been really really nice and just great. The amount of people talking about Plaid in Greece is zero, it is still zero.

Mel: That's so lush though that you're away, you're at the high seas of all the times as well. But I absolutely love this for you. It just has added a spice to our podcast that literally nobody could have predicted.

Robin Morgan: No, nobody could have predicted nor asked for.

Mel: No, there is that as well. I mean, we look forward to seeing you. Well, I want to ask you actually about So, we're in the first 100 days. Well, they've, they're starting Tik Tok. Boom. We're off. I only know the Welsh for this, so this might make this question difficult. What's Cymryd a llw? which is like they said that all the new MSS when they become an MS they have Cymryd a llw. Isn't there like a ceremonial thing that some of them have to do to start with before they officially become an MS?

Will Hayward: Yeah. So they have to take the oath. Basically they have to go into the Senate chamber and take an oath unlike what you kind of see in Westminster where they all go in and they all do it. They basically have been dripping in over the weekend because some people are coming from North Wales and you couldn't have them in the next day, it would have been a bit harsh to have them come in. So yeah, they're going in, they're swearing their oath, they're getting the laptops, they're getting the offices. Obviously 36 extra members. They've managed to find an office for everyone which I mean nothing says fun exciting political analysis like bureaucratic procedures within the Senate. I think what office people are going to get is always exciting. I went on Saturday at midday down to the Senate for a Plaid kind of welcome thing where basically all the new MS's and the Renaorn stood on the steps of the Senate. I remember I spoke to some people from Pied before, people within the Senate group, and they didn't they thought it was going to be a bit of a press conference but there was actually there was loads of people there with flags. It was a really big deal. Did you see the videos from there?

Mel: Loads of people down there breaking into the national anthem halfway through. I don't remember Welsh Labour getting that. Maybe the first election they ever won. I'm not sure. I was a little baba. I don't know.

Will Hayward: But it felt like a real moment in history, right? What was weird when you're down there as a journalist and you're kind of outnumbered by supporters. You're there watching it and you can appreciate the excitement that it's a moment in history, but you're not there as a supporter. You're there reporting. And I was quite shocked at the emotion that people were showing. I mean, there was some MS's visibly in tears. It felt like a huge moment. And I think you're right about Labor. You wouldn't have seen Welsh Labor have that same kind of vibe even if they'd done really really well because I think for Plight it was like we can't believe this has happened. For Labor, it's like well this would always happen. If we're on Labor, I might as well actually mention now. Did you see the piece that Stevens wrote for Whales Was Online? She did a first person piece.

Mel: It was quite the take, wasn't it? It was very sort of indicative of where UK Labor stands, I think, which is kind of almost trying to appeal to everybody and going down this sort of reform angle of the reason they lost is this Ugandan tree planting thing and 20 mph. It felt absolutely bizarre and sort of tone deaf to the problems which Welsh Labour felt from a UK level coming down. Obviously Joe Stevens has had knives out for her from Welsh labor for a while so maybe this was her going like good riddance, but it felt like a bizarre sort of hot take from her.

Will Hayward: Yeah I saw that and then I also saw a few interviews, I saw her on policy Wales on Sunday morning and interesting I thought again the knives were out to be honest for Welsh Labor. She was very kind of clear that she felt the failings were all of the devolved issues, the things that Welsh Labor and the Senate had responsibility for. That divide between parliamentary Welsh Labor and Senate Welsh Labor or even just UK labor and Welsh Labor feels like that gap feels wider after this election so much. And the animosity and you've seen like the MS's who lost their seats coming out swinging as well for their parliamentary candidates. There's a lot of divide in that party right now.

Will Hayward: (continued) Yeah there absolutely is and I think for we've had a lot of new listeners over the last week so just for context you've got Welsh Labor which is quite a nebulous almost concept. Welsh Labor have ran the Welsh government for the last 26 years and the leader of Welsh Labor was Morgan but although she technically led Welsh labor, there's huge influence from UK labor in how Welsh labor is run. So the staff are all paid for by UK labor and this divide between what even kind of is Welsh labor? Is it a thing unto itself? Is it an arm of UK labor? And Joe Stevens is the secretary of state for Wales. So she's in Karmama's cabinet and her role is supposed to be the voice of Wales in cabinet. But not just with her but with lots of secretary of state since devolution, since the Senate was created, people have seen it more as the voice of the cabinet in Wales. She made some of these comments in this piece. Now, she did say that she thinks that the UK government has made mistakes and she pointed to things like winter fuel and changes to welfare. But she didn't say that any of the mistakes were not giving any concessions on any kind of Welsh labor demands. But then this line that you both mentioned where she was talking about Ugandan tree planting. She said people are rightly cross about the roll out of a 20 mph speed restrictions and public money been spent on tree planting in Uganda when we aren't getting the basics right. The NHS, education, the cost of living, any time spent away from those key priorities was a time waste. And that is a finger up to Welsh labor, sorry. I think what is really I think I've spoken to a lot of people who you would say are the Welsh bit of Welsh labor who are really really cheesed off about what she said here. I kind of do get it because whether or not you agree with what she's saying, this is like the most reform narrative you could imagine. The tree planting in Uganda costs about £250,000 a year. It's a semi-detached house in Swansea worth of spending a year. And actually it's offset 25% of Wales's transport emissions. So it just isn't the kind of thing. And the fact that she thinks that contrition is going, "Oh, we got that wrong," rather than defending the thing that they did, which really doesn't matter anyway. 20 mph has made a massive difference in the health service. So, I don't know why she's come out like this because she's basically saying the blame for this result is Welsh Labor. It is the people in the Senate. It's not UK labor. It's not our fault.

Mel: What I find quite strange about it is I know you said that's why she's come out, but what's the point? What's the point in saying this apart from to potentially sort of secure her own place on a general election level like oh no we don't want to lose our votes to reform in 3 years time. It just felt like kicking someone when they're down to be completely honest and as you say there's an argument some people have that any money that's not spent in Wales during a cost of living crisis should be spent, I think that's a valid argument, but as we talked about soft power as we talked about emissions in previous episodes. But it just felt needless and sort of that thing of is UK labor still trying to cosplay as reform like the Welsh tourists did?

Will Hayward: I actually think there's perfectly legitimate reasons to criticize the Ugandan tree planting scheme. I can see why people would argue for it. I can see why you can argue against it. But if you're saying that's kind of why they lost the election, I think you've got rocks in your head. But what the UK Welsh Labor at the moment, well, Labour in Wales have basically created this circular firing squad where they're all just shooting at each other. And what actually needs to happen is they need to have a real conversation about why they lost in Wales. Why have they just had a century of domination gone and they need to be able to have actual hard questions with each other? And my concern is that what they're going to do is just get anyone in place. So Ken Skates has been made the temporary leader. He is the choice as I understand it of UK labor. I know Ken Skates quite well. He's perfectly nice guy. But if they just carry on and kind of put unity or outward unity ahead of actual having a conversation that they're just going to continue to flounder like there needs to be a huge wholesale change in what Welsh labor is and they need to decide what they are and then commit to it. Not this kind of halfway house broad church. At the moment you're a broad church which no one wants to go in and no one even likes each other. So I use the analogy in the newsletter. It's like a relationship where you've been together for decades and you've just the love's gone, but you'd rather continue along miserably than have some awkward conversations. And I think they need to have those conversations and stop leaving passive aggressive notes on the fridge.

Mel: Is there an argument that whoever the party were and however good they were at their job that this is simply too long to be in power for any party to do well? There are obvious failings within Welsh Labour's performance in Wales, 100%. But to give them some grace is there a possibility that we as voters get sick of parties after too long and they do come crashing down. I wonder if to give them some credit is that really fighting against them that they've been here since the start of devolution? Obviously they've been ated and but then is this a good opportunity for them? The dead wood is being cleared out. It's interesting that a lot of their elder faces have still clung on. But is this a good opportunity for them to really build from the ground up again and be a new exciting party?

Will Hayward: You're right. I mean, anyone who's been in a job a long time knows keeping the same level of energy is really hard. It just is. I don't think you can argue that Welsh labor at the end were a dynamic force wash with new ideas and energy. They just weren't. Of their nine MS's, I'm just looking at the list now, they've only got two which are new. So Shave Tage and Hugh Thomas. The rest are kind of established names. I mean, Lynn Neagle's been in there since the start of devolution. When you look at it, actually, most of the people in there were supporters of Vaughn Gething. I don't think it's who is obviously closer to UK Labor. I don't think they are going to have the conversations that they need at the moment. But then again, a UK laying the conversations that they need as I mean as we speak Karma's still just about prime minister. Shall we talk a little bit about Plaid and what they do next?

Mel: Yes.

Will Hayward: It was fascinating to see how excited Clyde Camry were as they kind of took their seats inside the Senate for the first time. Although it is exciting, what actually really matters now is what happens next. That success is a moment in time and what it will be defined by is not the fact they've won. It will be defined by whether they managed to fulfill on the promises that they've said. They have promised to change Wales. They've promised that they will run things differently that Wales will get better under their watch. And I think they need to fulfill this. They need to crack on. Made a list of some of the things because they did their 100 day plan didn't they? As you mentioned, Mel, we're 5 days in. We're 5% of the way into the plan.

Will Hayward: (continued) and we're probably still hung over. So, the 100 day plan will end in August. So, that will be the first 100 days is mid August. They have said that by then, I mean, there's a whole long list of things. There's dozens and dozens of things they've said. One of the things that they've said that they will do is they will have expanded free school meals for all secondary school kids that claim universal credit by September. So by September that will be rolled out. They've also said that they'll be putting together the plans for the roll out of the 12 and a half hours of funded child care. They've said that they will have published a plan which will mean that by the end of 2026 there'll be these elective hubs around Wales which will be apparently going through the waiting lists. But they have got to crack on. People are impatient, aren't they?

Mel: Yeah, absolutely. People voted for change. They want change. And the problem with voters is we want it now, they want to see that difference, which is incredibly difficult. It's incredibly different to deliver noticeable change in five years, but ply need to learn the lessons that Karma didn't or kind of set the path and they need to avoid doing everything that Starama did in his first year. So yeah, they've got a lot to deliver and I'm sure I'm not going to make many friends saying this, but they have a lot of borrowed votes from this election that they're going to really need to show why they were the people to trust if they want to ride that again. But yeah, you were saying about them breaking into the national anthem outside the Senate and whatnot. One thing I will say which I do love about our country is that that can happen and it not feel like a rally. I think there are certain countries maybe one not so far away where had that happened I feel like my life would be in danger whereas in Wales are like, "Oh bless them, someone's granddad's bought their choir here," it's lovely stuff you know.

Robin Morgan: A real sick burn on France there Mel how dare you.

Mel: Zing.

Robin Morgan: I think they've got to get to work right. They've got to get to work where they must if they've got a 100 day road map on their little chart and they're crossing off the days. Those X's are starting to get together now, aren't they? And you need to start showing people that, as you say, some borrowed votes, people want change, people want it quite quickly. But they do have that Starmer blueprint of this is what not to do. Okay. So, I suppose how are they going to do that? They must be aware of that. Isn't communication a big thing for them? Will, in terms of like we're going to show you what we're doing and communicate it constantly? Have they said that?

Will Hayward: I mean, Wales's problems are really entrenched and they're not going to be fixed in a year. There's just no way. They probably won't all be fixed within 4 years. But I think what you always need to do when you're communicating stuff is manage people's expectations, but also show as you go along because, if you're in McDonald's and you've done your order and you can see your order on the screen and your order 38, if you are just sat there and you're just in a vacuum and you're just waiting for people to at some point you're going to get your number, you get more impatient than if you can see the numbers going down because you know where you're at in the queue and I think that's always really helpful.

Will Hayward: (continued) So what they've said they're going to do is within those first 100 days they're going to establish this kind of digital dashboard they've called it and what that will do is show these are the targets that we've got. This is where we want to get to and this is where we're at on those targets and they want to communicate these kind of measurable outcomes and what they'll have to do firstly with that is they have to set the targets and you want a target which is achievable but ambitious. And that's a really hard thing to do. They've said they're going to set up this dashboard so that people will be able to follow it. Now, I have no doubt that that is what they intend to do. And I've got no doubt that they'll actually probably set that up. My question is always once things get hard, once the data actually isn't showing that you're hitting targets, are you going to be as open? Are you going to have that mentality of, "Oh yeah, we've got to be really open with the public when openness opens you up for criticism." And I think that's going to be a tough thing. It's going to take a lot of self-confidence from Pied to do that. But that's what we need them to do. Like whether you voted for Plight or not and I think you're right about borrowed votes. Everyone in Wales needs them to succeed. The emergency is too big. The challenges are too dire and important for them not to succeed. They've got to make this work.

Mel: That communication is so important I do think and if done well could really put them in goodstead. I think a classic example is like the previous Welsh government's mishandling of the new farming policies which were actually not that bad. They weren't that bad. They were just communicated so terribly and not taking those people with them. And I think they could really avoid a lot of stuff like that if they do communicate this stuff well.

Robin Morgan: It's the same with 20 mph as well, right? I think if you'd have come out and gone, it's going to save this many lives, this many children's injuries, and over the course of x amount of time. It's going to save you money because of these things. People are like, "Right, okay." And if they're like, "Look, we know it's a bit annoying, but look, seat belts used to be annoying for people, and look how that's helped. There's the communication line. You bring people with you." I think that digital dashboard thing is a very good idea in principle. How many people are going to go on this digital dashboard? How many people are going to make it their homepage on their website? Zero. Right? So do they continually have to tell people where these things are? I remember during the covid briefings knowing that if cases went below like 100 per whatever then we got to go down the stages of lockdown. So I was like, oh my god I'm going to check it. So if people have got these things of like a bit of carrot and stick like look if you meet your targets you're all going to get a free pizza or if you're not going to get maybe if you don't meet our targets, if it's delivered in more than half an hour you get a free Papa John's. Let's a bit of carrot and stick.

Will Hayward: If you're still dying on a Nate waiting list, we'll give you a pepperoni passion.

Robin Morgan: Perfect. Perfect. It's fine.

Will Hayward: With Pied, there's a few questions that they're going to have to answer. We know Mel brought up Farming. They have got to they've probably delayed some difficult conversations during the election about farming and about environmental challenges. They've delayed some tricky conversations about green energy policy and stuff like that. And also they've delayed key questions about how much they're going to fund the civil service in Wales because if you want to make changes, you need to have a kind of the mechanics in place to facilitate those changes. Wales has a really underfunded is probably we have a small public civil service. I'm not saying it's the most efficient civil service in the world, but are they going to have to invest in that? And they're all kind of open questions at this point, aren't they?

Mel: One thing I wanted to and perhaps this is moving to a slightly different topic now. But there, when it comes to delivering for Wales, we've got 36 more MS's to do that. So I wanted to kind of ask you, Will, somebody said to me the other day, what on earth are all of these MS doing? Cuz when you're watching the counts and you're seeing all of them being elected in every seat, it looks like a lot of people. And for people who aren't feeling like they're being well represented now, well served, there's another 36. So I wanted to ask you for those people who are unsure as to why this has happened, what is the history behind the expansion of the Senate and what differences do you think this is going to make?

Will Hayward: Okay, so the Senate used to be 60 members. It's now been expanded to 96 and this was really controversial because people would say well we have got loads of struggling public services. Why are we paying for more politicians? And I explore this quite a bit in the book. I'm looking at my notes over here. If my face isn't looking directly at the screen is cuz I'm just checking that I'm using the right figures. So they expanded the senive to 96 members. Personally I think that the argument for doing that was justifiable. The reason being 60 is so small for a country of 3 million. Scotland had 215% more people in their parliament. They had 129 compared to Wales's 60. Scotland was more than twice the size. We've expanded it and we're still smaller than Scotland. It's not like we've made it bigger than Scotland which has a bigger population. The other reason for doing it is basically a lot of the scrutiny of Welsh government and the laws that they make happens in committees. It happens in committees in the Senate where MS's in government will have to go in and justify why they've done stuff and laws will get scrutinized and basically they'll get experts in to look at different facets of the law and say right why are we doing this? Is there a better way to do it? And that's what good opposition is. The problem that we had was when we only had 60 MS's and many of them, 14 odd of them are in government, that leaves the others who were in the committee spread over multiple committees and it meant that you weren't able to get specialist knowledge like if you were in say the farming committee but you're also in the education committee they are two hugely different things and you need to be an expert on both and it was hard to do. So the idea of expanding it was to make the scrutiny of the Welsh government better because if you think about it like this right the Welsh government say has 15 people in the cabinet and that's 25% of all MS's were in government so the other 75% were supposed to scrutinize them but 15 of those will have also been within Welsh labor so Welsh labor had 30 MS's 15 odd of them in government 15 odd of them were on the back bench but they're less likely to want to criticize their own party. So you really only had 30 people and I always think that in any parliament you basically got a third of people are quite crap. You've got a third who are okay and you've got a third who are good. If you have only 60 members and we say 20 of them are a bit crap that only leaves 40 people. And so if you want to move people around and actually get the best people in post it makes it much harder to do. I'm not saying that Westminster, by the way, is an amazing well of talent, but if you've got 650 MPs, you've got kind of maybe 200 that are going to be good as opposed to in Wales where we had 20. It does cost money to expand the Senate, but it needs to increase the efficiency of the Welsh government by 0.07% a year. If those MS's make the Welsh government 0.1% more efficient, they have more than paid for themselves. So, I think the system's rubbish. I think the fact that each constituency has got six MS's is bad because the good MS's are going to get loads of work, have to do loads of work and it's easy for the lazy ones to coast and I think that will happen. But yeah, so that was kind of what underpins the expansion of the Senate.

Robin Morgan: I do think the six thing is really interesting and I've got six people representing me. Who will I contact if I have an issue? Will I contact potentially a party that I voted for? If I didn't vote for one of the parties that got elected, do I go for one that I like the most? Like is it like picking a horse where I choose the funniest name, what's the vibe there? And as you say, Will, like we've all worked in groups in school work and people are quite happy to coast. People are quite happy to be like, "Yeah, can you put my name on it please? Yeah, yeah that's absolutely great," and that will happen. I suppose if we think of opposition and scrutiny coming from committees do we think some of the new MS's will be happy to put the work in and do the actual hard graft and scrutiny?

Will Hayward: I mean ultimately Plaid Cymru are going to need some really good opposition. They're going to need scrutiny. They're going to need to be challenged. Now Reform are the people who are going to do that. They are the official opposition. They've got 34 members. Will they do the real scrutiny? Will they be at the committees? Because scrutiny isn't just Opposition isn't just going on social media and saying, "Oh, look what you've done. This has made me angry." Real scrutiny is in the committees, but it's also in offering a realistic different vision. You can't just say this is rubbish. What you really want to be saying is, "Why don't you do this?" And that's what real scrutiny is. Now, I've had a few conversations with people in Reform in Wales over the last couple of days. Obviously, all off the record because they get told off if they talk to me because they really care about free speech. Now what I think will be interesting with them is some of them said we are literally planning to use FMQs as just a way of creating social media content. I also had sources within the party who've told me that have you guys ever heard of astroturfing?

Mel: I mean I know what astroturf is but I feel like this has got to be an analogy that I don't know of.

Will Hayward: So basically astroturfing is a political technique where you basically fake that there is a grassroots movement against something or for something. As I understand it sources within Reform have told me that they are planning on flooding platforms like social media with huge amounts of opposition supplied from bots and from paid-for accounts in order to manufacture the perception that there's a large grassroots opposition. I'm not saying there aren't people in Wales who are opposed to Plaid. There 100% are, but I think part of what their plan is is to try and ride this wave. I've approached Reform for comment on this. We'll see what they say. I'm sure they will deny, I don't know if they'll reply at all, but if they do reply, I'm sure they'll deny this but I've got really reputable sources within Reform who are telling me this is part of the plan. That won't make Wales better. If Reform want to buck the perception that they are on this as basically just a stepping stone for Westminster, they need to provide real credible, thoughtful opposition. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. We wait and see. But Plaid need that. We can't if Plaid just got Reform just shouting at them, that isn't actually going to make government in Wales any better, I don't think. And we really need them to be held to account.

Mel: Are we running the risk of Plaid not having a good enough opposition because Reform are going to use that tactic and not do it by the proper means and then the other parties are all left of center anyway and it's in their interest to support Plaid in the majority of policies or anything that they try to shift? Are we running a risk of there just not really being an opposition? Is it just the Tories again with their seven members spearheaded by Andrew RT Davies that are going to be an opposition? That sounds ridiculous.

Will Hayward: If you have parties which are not putting forward credible alternatives, it just drags everything down. Welsh Labor are obviously overwhelmingly responsible for their own actions. But the fact that there's been no credible alternative to them for many years allowed them to slip into the lethargy I think they were in. I don't know. I mean, with Reform, I didn't see Dan Thomas at all over the weekend in any kind of coverage. Did you, Rob, from your boat?

Robin Morgan: No. He's not on any small boats near me but I think that's quite predictable. He's not ridden any turtles near me. No, I haven't seen him across anything. I believe they didn't really put him up for any of the media rounds, which is baffling, isn't it? Because he's obviously come in because he is the guy. He's the one who's going to lead Wales. This is the thing. Does he want to do it? Do they actually want to do it? I don't know. Maybe we'll see. But that thing about astroturfing is fascinating. That's really bleak and really fascinating because they've obviously got people within the party who I saw a couple of backstories of certain people that they've got in and it's fascinating from different walks of life and people obviously will feel like these people will represent them. So, I don't know, will Reform voters get pissed off if they start to see them defecting or quitting and as we mentioned, when a shadow cabinet gets formed, the infighting will begin, which it will, will Reform voters care or get pissed off about it?

Mel: I have the sense that there are a lot of really good campaigners within Reform in Wales. Being a campaigner does not make you a good MS. It does not make you a good parliamentarian. I wonder if that is where their skill set lies. We could be proven wrong. They could be a really effective opposition. They come in, they hold to account. At the end of the day, they had a big share of the public vote and they might really represent those people. But my suspicion is they're good at campaigning. The nitty-gritty boring bit, which is the next few years now, well, I don't know.

Will Hayward: I think what is interesting with Reform is the more I've looked at it, the more I'm convinced they had a bad night. They did have a bad night in Wales. Farage didn't show up. In the grand scheme of things, they'll be happy that they got 34 seats, it isn't a bad result, but they will be disappointed with it because ultimately less than 30% of people who voted in Wales voted for them. You can't be the voice of the people in Wales when 70% of people don't want you to be their voice. I think if they'd have marketed themselves like, "We are an emerging force in Wales. We could be the biggest but we're going to get over 30 seats," and they'd got that, I'd have thought, "Yeah wow that's a really good night." If you're standing up and saying we are a political earthquake who are going to not only be the biggest party we are going to have over 50% of the votes and form the next Welsh government and then you fail to do that, and they were well short of that. I mean they won two seats in Newport where their leader was standing, their heartland, they won two seats out of six. They haven't romped home with this kind of glorious charge. They are annoyed about that because when you're a party on the right the only thing you've got is winning and if you're not winning you need to distance yourself from it which is maybe why he didn't show up over the weekend.

Robin Morgan: I enjoyed Dan Thomas saying like "the momentum is with us" you know like that that was a big thing he was trying to say in his speech. "Four years ago this party had 1% now we've got 30% of the vote." And as we know lines only work up so in four years we are going to absolutely tank it.

Mel: Yeah that's how lines work famously. It would be really interesting to know why Dan Thomas wasn't the face of Reform over the weekend in the coverage during such a key time. I would love to know if that was a personal choice, whether the party chose that or why the party chose that. I saw she on a lot of stuff. It'd be really interesting to know why Dan, who they should be trying to make a real name of, isn't there. They should really almost be trying to make him Nigel's mini me in Wales. I feel like that didn't happen during the campaign. There will be a lot of Reform voters who have no idea what the name Dan Thomas is. Why they didn't use this momentum that they have that is with them, his words, why they're not trying to use that to increase his profile because ultimately the reicorn's profile did Plaid wonders as well. I think he's the first leader that Plaid had who the public want to admire and I mean that in no disrespect to the previous ones. But I think he's carried himself in an air that previous Plaid leaders have not carried themselves.

Will Hayward: Do you think better than Leanne?

Mel: Yeah. And I don't mean that on a personal level. I genuinely think this is the first time Plaid Cymru have taken themselves seriously as a party, as an election winning party. I think they've shown up professionally. I think they've shown up really well. I know Leanne Wood was at those times in the debates where she would be the only woman in those debates maybe, or she'd be with Nicola Sturgeon and so on and I think she carried herself well, but I don't think she appealed to the mass public in the same way that Rhun has.

Will Hayward: So I think one thing I really would push back on which is what Reform has put out is this idea that they've come from nothing. Reform are the Brexit party, the Brexit party were UKIP. This thing of "Oh you know we've come from nowhere," you had seven MS's in 2016 under UKIP, some of which were running again for you now in this election. Mark Reckless ran as a UKIP MS in 2016, got in, went to about four other parties, and now has run for Reform again. This isn't like they were nowhere to be seen. The reason they didn't do well at the last election in Wales is because basically Farage wasn't fully engaged with it, but that doesn't mean that they're this kind of new force. They've just put on a different rosette, which is only slightly different in color. It's basically the Brexit party rosette. They've basically opened up the Microsoft Paint palette and they've just gone slightly over from purple up to blue. Let's not act like this is some kind of grassroots movement.

Mel: I think of it like when they're giving out free samples in supermarkets and you go around with a different disguise so you can get more and more.

Robin Morgan: Yes, I love that. Yeah. Going past where they have the little cheese blocks and you're just swiping off the little Oh, I used to love doing that as a kid when my mom was shopping, she'd be like, "I know where Melanie is." I'll be there with my hood up by the cheese counter, by the little deli bit. Should I go bit salami? I wanted to finish with a chat because obviously Plaid are going to be making their demands of UK labor soon because pretty much their entire manifesto was making demands of UK labor. What do you think the responses are going to be? because I was looking at some of the data and what's quite interesting is Plaid got a bigger vote share in this election than UK Labor got in the general election. It just shows how mad the electoral system is in Westminster that you can win like 33% of the vote and get 60 odd % of the seats. It's just crazy, isn't it?

Will Hayward: My gut feeling is that Rhun ap Iorwerth is going to go to Welsh and be like, "Right, let's see the goodies that we've all heard so much about. Let's start seeing some of this." And UK Labor are going to be like, "Mate, are you joking. We've got quite a bigger fish to fry right now. What happens in Wales? Couldn't give a crap. Our party is breaking down. Reform have taken all of our councils. Scotland, let's not even go there. Can you give us a minute?" I think we're just going to be in that cycle constantly.

Mel: I think Joe Stevens's op-ed in Wales Online is quite indicative of where the cabinet lies at the moment. Whether that will still be the cabinet in 40 minutes, I don't know. So, I suppose it's a wait and see moment.

Will Hayward: I'm inclined to agree with you. I think they're going to be pretty obstinate. And it so much depends on who the prime minister is. I mean, if there is a new PM, I think it depends, doesn't it? I mean, if it's Starmer still there, I think it will be more of the same. If it's Andy Burnham, that would be interesting. I did make the prediction of an Andy Burnham Rhun bromance over Christmas, so maybe that will come to fruition. We probably need to wrap up. But while we're recording this, the vote for the next Llywydd, the speaker inside the Senate, is happening. There could be some shenanigans around that. We don't know yet what that's going to be. So, we're not going to talk about that now. But it will definitely be something we will discuss at the live show.

Mel: Absolutely. I love shenanigans. I live for shenanigans and I think we need more shenanigans in the Senedd. I'm here for it.

Will Hayward: Agree. I do find it quite funny that we've extended by 36. Reform have got 34 seats. We've basically built them like a little extension on the right of the house. That's essentially what we've done.

Robin Morgan: A granny annexe on it.

Mel: One thing I would like to end on, if it's okay, Will, is to say a big happy birthday to you because it's your birthday and you're recording on your actual birthday.

Will Hayward: Thank you, Robin. I don't know why I feel like this might be a trap.

Robin Morgan: It's not a trap, but I do have a birthday treat for you, which is a birthday message from somebody I believe producer Daryl will have sent you a video and you can watch it with your volume up and then we can put it on the screen for people who are watching.

Will Hayward: Okay. So for listeners I have got on my screen a 10 second clip which is a video of a turtle in the open ocean. So I'm going to press play. Am I good to press play?

Robin Morgan (as Anthony Slaughter): Hello Will. Anthony Slaughter here doing what I always do, embodying a Kefalonian turtle. Have a good birthday. Bye-bye.

Will Hayward: So, he sent that to me this morning.

Robin Morgan: Anthony Slaughter sent you a video describing himself as a Kefalonian turtle, did he?

Will Hayward: No, that was him. That was him. What he does, he does such a good Robin Morgan turtle impression. Thank you so much for that. If you're an audio listener, you can't begin to imagine how pleased Robin is looking with himself on his video. He's going a bit red with excitement. He's actually visibly crying at his own joke, but he's turned into a Kefalonian turtle and an impression of it.

Robin Morgan: It's because I was wandering around Kefalonia this morning and I saw these turtles and they're beautiful. Videoed it and then as I was on my own, I was giggling to myself thinking I'm going to do a voice over for Will and pretend to be Slaughter. And I was having to do a voice over as people from the cruise ship passengers. He'd seen me not have a good giggle last night to avoid them as they were walking past me.

Will Hayward: You know when you set out and you're like, "I'm going to be a comedian," is that the scene that you really saw yourself in?

Robin Morgan: I don't mind.

Mel: People say to me, "Oh, what are Robin and Mel like behind the scenes? I bet they're just joke after joke, aren't they?" I'm like, "Yeah, yep." So, that's it for today. Thank you for that lovely birthday surprise.

Will Hayward: You're welcome.

Robin Morgan: Thank you very much.

Will Hayward: Robin is still visibly in tears at his own joke. So thank you very much. My name is Will Hayward.

Mel: My name is Will Owen.

Robin Morgan: My name is Anthony Slaughter. Goodbye.

Will Hayward: Goodbye.

Mel: Bye.